Mike Wilson Says the Rally Could be Over Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the risk of a US recession is receding amid a persistently strong jobs market and signs of improving business sentiment. The Goldman team led by Jan Hatzius cut its estimate for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%. By contrast, Bloomberg’s survey of economists last month pointed to a 65% chance of a downturn within that time. Historically the typical chance of a recession in any 12-month period is roughly 15%. “Continued strength in the labor market and early signs of improvement in the business surveys suggest that the risk of a near-term slump has diminished notably,” Hatzius wrote. Employers added more than half a million jobs in January, well above expectations, according to data published Friday. Goldman also pointed to a rapid slowdown in inflation, and wage growth that’s cooling down toward a level that’s compatible with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. The outlook supports the Fed’s view that a so-called “soft landing” for the economy is achievable, and also its inclination to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in both the March […]
K&X Design and Investment Technology, LLC
Invest The Invisible Impact
K&X Design and Investment Technology, LLC
Invest The Invisible Impact
