Bonds yields are reversing an early-morning rise after a regional manufacturing survey suggested a marked contraction in business activity, underscoring concerns the economy could be headed for a recession. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which canvasses producers in New York state, fell to minus 33 this month, reflecting that a greater share of businesses are seeing activity decline. The reading was a sharp fall from December’s minus 11 figure. The survey is volatile: The index also fell below minus 30 last year, only to recover into positive territory months later. Still, bond traders are taking the report as a cautionary sign about economic growth, buying Treasurys in a bet on an incrementally lower projected path of Federal Reserve rate increases. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note had traded above 3.58% earlier Tuesday morning, but fell to 3.525% following the survey, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year yield is still up slightly from its close at 3.510% on Friday before Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Yields fall as bond prices rise.