Irina Gutyryak It has been a rough ride for WestRock (NYSE: WRK ) shareholders. The stock has declined 45% over the past five years and is down nearly 25% in the last year, significantly underperforming the broader market. Shares declined last week after the company withdrew full-year EBITDA guidance citing weakness in its global paper segment and an uncertain demand outlook (high customer inventories) given the economic environment. While the global paper segment, which represented ~30% of EBITDA (3 year average), is subject to greater volatility than the company’s consumer packaging and corrugated packaging segments, I believe the market has overly discounted WestRock shares which now sell for just ~8x current year (depressed) free cash flow per share. As I discuss below, I see modest upside even if the business continues to experience weak results and significant (+150%) upside should management achieve its 2025 targets. Reasons to like WestRock Improved industry structure following years of industry consolidation. Ten years ago, the top five players controlled less than 50% of the corrugated packaging market. After a decade of consolidation, the top 4 players now control 75-80% of the market which creates a much more favorable dynamic in terms of capacity […]
