Business Outlook Sours in Canada, Complicating Rate Path

The Bank of Canada has raised borrowing costs by 4 percentage points since last March. Canadian business sentiment fell to its lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic in a central bank survey, while consumer expectations for short-term inflation held at a record high. Data released Monday by the Bank of Canada show the economy adjusting to high interest rates and heading to a period of weaker growth or even a mild recession. More businesses than usual expect their sales to decline, and consumers have reduced their spending plans. The central bank’s business outlook indicator fell to 0.07 in the fourth quarter, from a revised 1.74 previously. Firms said rising interest rates and high inflation are crimping their outlook for demand and plans to invest. About 70% expect the economy to enter a recession. Higher rates and inflation have also limited the ability of consumers to spend, the bank said in a separate survey. Most workers don’t expect their earnings to catch up with recent price pressures, and about half of households think they will be negatively affected by a potential recession. About half of consumers who expect a recession think it will be moderate in severity and length, while 90% […]

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